Victoria covid-19 reprise

Another Dan lockdown inevitable

On this graph I figure the first spurt is a false dawn. Maybe some tests were false-positives (i.e. it is not uncommon for the common cold to register a positive on a COVID test especially early on) or maybe it was confined to a small sector of the population. So in my view the second spurt on this graph is actually round one for Melbourne/Victoria. With a very hard lockdown from Dan Andrews I think it means there will be another round. And Dan will lockdown again. So who is going to win, nature or Dan?


Luckily Melbourne is a pretty warm spot normally, so lots of sun and heat will probably deal to it in January & February and locking down in the Xmas retail period won't be popular at all. I think if Dan is still there in April though, one should expect another lockdown.

.* *I'm strictly an amateur epidemiologist having only done a short course via John Hopkins University and fairly extensive but unsupervised study over a few months earlier this year.*

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