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good point but the link ug I dunno. seems like there have been some notable historical examples of contagion

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Allegedly. I think the Roman Empire might have played fast and loose with facts though. Black death has been put down to the Venetian trade routes collapsing etc.

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Jan 16, 2022·edited Jan 16, 2022Liked by Richard Seager

Well if you want macro evidence that doesn't depend on witnesses at all ask yourself why the new world was (and is) so sparsely populated. The theory described in 1491 seems like the most compelling explanation: novel diseases killed most of the inhabitants before many Europeans even saw the place.

That said I completely agree that it's barking mad how media just asks people to accept science reporting without any interpretable evidence whatsoever. It's all the more inexplicable because it results in the most boring text imaginable. Though actually I had exactly the same feeling about chemistry in school. You'd think they'd start with an epistemological DAG of the evidence but noooo

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Jan 16, 2022·edited Jan 16, 2022Author

That novel disease could easily have been the gun which was invented around that time. The Americas maybe was known of but the challenges of invasion considered too high with swords and spears.

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even the most organized genocides known haven't achieved widespread reductions anywhere near as large as the one from the carrying capacity of the new world to (even) its present population

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That may be the case (or may not be if you consider the cases of Hiroshima & Nagasaki in isolation from the country of Japan) but there may also be other explanations (in fact I'm sure there is).

I just don't believe in pandemics anymore. Genocide for sure exists though but likely comes up against reality 9 times out of 10, that reality being the intended victims resilience.

The carrying capacity of NZ is probably 40-70 million. We're 5 million with 12 million cattle and 30 million sheep. The reason is obvious, we're still a colony. Maybe that also explains the Americas.

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well admittedly the weird thing about pandemics is that if they exist its somewhat odd that we haven't seen more of them in recent history what with the large number of people and intensive animal ag urbanization etc. Still it's a short time window. plague wasn't all that long ago. Probably most people are better fed now.

you're right that there are probably other sparsely populated places (particularly islands) which are hard to explain in terms of disease, but empty continents I'm not sure especially with archaeological evidence of recently vanished dense civilization.

Is that NZ carrying capacity with or without the current cattle and sheep (which might explain present pop)?

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